The South African media has produced volumes of reporting, perception and opinion on the native nationwide safety scene during the last 12 months. That is partially as a result of revelations on the Zondo fee into state seize, and partially on account of the persevering with turmoil in elements of the safety and intelligence institution.
However little has been stated concerning the higher-level pondering and strategic-level processes which can be preconditions for the constructing of an efficient and accountable nationwide safety equipment. Our obsession with the small print of who did what and when will not be solely a consequence of the failure to suppose strategically, however binds us right into a perpetual means of excited about micro-solutions to macro-strategic challenges.
To say that South Africa wants a course of and outcomes to develop and codify a brand new nationwide safety technique will not be new. What I want to discover right here is the centrality of “the individuals” in such a method, not solely within the means of crafting such a method, however within the content material thereof.
‘The individuals’ as a weapon in uneven and hybrid warfare
The conduct of latest worldwide affairs differs considerably from earlier intervals in so far as the clear delineation of struggle and peace not exists in an age the place political motion, political warfare and fight co-exist in each our on-line world and the standard “actual” domains of politics.
A basic shift on this respect is the focusing on of what adversarial states would establish because the centre of gravity of states: this has moved from the management and command and precise combating forces, to a state the place the citizenry has assumed the central gravitational position within the safety and stability of a state. In democratic states comparable to ours, this centrality is much more pronounced, with the state unable to successfully operate with out the help and legitimacy of “the individuals”.
Hybrid warfare entails the appliance of knowledge as a weapon to form public opinion, remodel the psychology of teams, and direct these to realize particular political or financial goals. The omnipresence of social media and the intrusive entry of personal firms over our communications is the most important facilitator of the power to weaponise info towards states.
Yaris Varoufakis, the previous finance minister of Greece, reminds us of the previous Athenian saying that “the sturdy do what they will and the weak endure what they need to”. Worldwide relations is essentially an train of energy, and people recognized as weak or with the actual potential to be weakened can be exploited, marginalised and ignored within the bigger strategic area. No quantity of invites to essential summits or telephone calls from world leaders adjustments this basic calculation.
South Africa has entered a interval of maximum fragility and vulnerability as a result of a spread of things, from strategic drift, diminishing institutional functionality and the rising belief deficit between the citizenry and the nationwide management. This vulnerability applies each to our home stability and our worldwide relations.
Inside tensions, the collapse of the ANC and the failure of the political elite to reconstruct the social contract supplies a superb alternative to assault the nation’s centre of gravity, “the individuals”, drive an extra wedge between them and the federal government, and impact change that doesn’t serve the pursuits of the nation.
‘The individuals’ as crafters of technique
In our context, a nationwide safety technique can solely be efficient if it may well construct its core components across the resilience of the individuals. Consequently the residents have to be central to the method of crafting such a nationwide safety technique. The concept that such a method might be developed totally in boardrooms whereas gaining the legitimacy and efficiency that may solely be achieved via the consent of the individuals, won’t survive the slightest assault.
Among the key paperwork in our nationwide historical past are the results of intensive engagement with the individuals, together with the Freedom Constitution and the Structure of the Republic of South Africa. The event of a brand new nationwide safety technique, an initiative that appears to be progressing effectively below the minister of state safety and to which reference is made within the ministry’s 2021 funds speech, should attain out to the general public at massive, in addition to the educational and coverage neighborhood to be able to search enter whereas concurrently utilizing the method itself as a chance to construct the resilience functionality that comes with a powerful bond between the federal government and folks.
Cohesion as a strategic crucial
We South Africans endure from two collective pathologies that, when mixed, poses potent dangers for the society of the nation and its potential to flourish. On the one hand there’s a deeply-embedded exceptionalism that posits that we’ll by no means fall sufferer to the disastrous and generally endemic state failure that has accompanied a lot of post-colonial Africa.
Then again, there’s a sure naivety round our worldwide relations that assumes we’re universally cherished and admired due to our fleeting “Madiba second”, that’s that we’re proof against the impact of energy and self-interest in worldwide relations.
Societies which can be divided as we more and more are — alongside not solely conventional racial traces however alongside class traces too — battle to take care of their nationwide cohesion. Such societies have a restricted wherewithal to withstand efforts by different states to form the pondering and actions of its publics, and are minimally efficient in advancing its pursuits overseas. Nationwide cohesion due to this fact turns into a central ingredient of a nationwide safety technique.
If we agree with this assumption it follows that the nationwide safety equipment have to be oriented in direction of accumulating the type of intelligence that may help the policymaker with a decisional benefit and choices to construct such cohesion, in any respect ranges of our society.
This might embody each the identification of cohesion-eroding dangers, acquiring intelligence on native or nationwide alternatives and initiatives to construct nationwide cohesion, and intelligence on financial and developmental alternatives that may create the sociopolitical stipulations for a cohesive society.
Not one of the above might be achieved with out the dual components of a nationwide safety technique that’s rooted within the individuals as its core, and an intelligence neighborhood that’s not defanged however capacitated to fulfill this pressing and existential requirement.